NATO's new significant threats

In a rapidly changing world where terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons are replacing conventional enemies, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is finding that it needs to reinvent itself in order to address what it has identified as "significant threats."

In the aftermath of the Cold War, NATO has entered a most challenging period of transformation, forced to adapt not only to the realities of a changed Europe but also those of a changed and changing world, said Richard Prosen, from the U.S. State Department's Office of European Security and Political Affairs.

To face the challenges of the future, NATO is taking bold steps to complete its transformation from what was a "static reactive alliance focused on territorial defense" when it trained to deter the Soviet military "to an expeditionary proactive global security alliance," said Prosen.

Indeed, in a post-Sept. 11 world, NATO found it had to reorganize itself and change its very foundation to take on rising threats facing the West. For the first time since its inception the alliance undertook a mission outside its traditional area of operations, deploying forces in Afghanistan to combat the Taliban.

This has proven to be a difficult mission, with several members of the alliance showing reluctance to commit troops in a conflict where resistance is rising and casualties are expected. Just two weeks ago, France, which is not part of the NATO military command, suffered 10 fatalities when a military patrol fell into an ambush.

At the same time as having to fight terrorism, NATO is facing a resurgence of what some analysts see as possible Russian expansionism, as was demonstrated by the manner in which Moscow handled the recent crisis in the Caucasus.

How will NATO cope with those challenges? Will the alliance remain steadfast? Will Turkey, a Muslim nation and an important NATO member given its geographic location straddling Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, remain faithful to the organization, or will it be tempted to jump ship and side with its closer neighbor, Russia? The continuing delay imposed on Turkey in joining the European Union could play on Turkish sentiments.

So just how serious is the current threat to the Western alliance emanating both from terrorism and Russia?

"The future looks very, very grim," said Yonah Alexander, director of the International Center for Terrorism Studies in Washington. Alexander explained that the West has been looking into counter-terrorism strategies for decades but has still to come up with a magic bullet. "Maybe there isn't a magic bullet," said Alexander.

Alexander cautioned against the impulsive reaction of some analysts to resort to the military solution too fast, arguing that "the military response is only one step. You can kill a person, but you cannot kill an idea," said Alexander.

The Western alliance "is facing an enemy as deadly as we have ever faced and an enemy as deadly as in World War II," said Peter Huessy, senior defense consultant at the National Defense University Foundation and president of GeoStrategic Analysis.

NATO, several experts agreed, is taking bold steps to complete its transformation in retraining its forces to learn how to cope in an asymmetrical war and in doing so is committing itself to taking steps to deter and defeat terrorism.

But whatever action NATO is doing is far from enough, many analysts agree. According to Ian Lesser, a senior trans-Atlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, NATO is going to have to seriously reconsider the whole business of nuclear forces and nuclear strategy.

"The geographic center of gravity for NATO planners is going to continue to shift south," said Lesser, adding: "There is going to be a new, much more competitive strategic relationship with Russia. It will shift south to the Caucasus and the Middle East. Russia is back in the Mediterranean, and it's not just tourists, but the Russian navy."

In fact, unconfirmed reports indicate that the Russian Mediterranean Fleet is looking into making greater use of the Syrian port of Tartus, giving Moscow a base in the Mediterranean, allowing the Russians an all-important naval facility for its Mediterranean fleet without having to transit through the Bosporus, which is under tight Turkish -- thus NATO -- control.

The second threat to NATO stems from Russia in what is perceived by security specialists as Russia's attempt to draw a new line across Europe. NATO enlargement is not a threat to Russia, although Russia has used this to expand its own regional hegemony, Lesser said.

As the threats continue to evolve, particularly in the field of nuclear armament, then so too will NATO have to evolve with the changing trends. And as the threat moves farther south the alliance will have to work closely with Turkey to ensure that Ankara is kept contented and that it invests heavily in developing and perfecting its intelligence-gathering capabilities.

Perhaps one of the most transforming aspects of NATO could come about with France rejoining NATO's military command from which President Charles De Gaulle withdrew in the 1960s.

However, there remains an urgent need to address the root causes of terrorism, particularly in the Middle East.

by Claude Salhani

(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)